Extinction time of an epidemic with infection-age-dependent infectivity

Authors

  • Anicet Mougabe-Peurkor Université Félix Houphouet Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ibrahima Dramé Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, FST, LMA, 16180 Dakar-Fann, Senegal
  • Modeste N'zi Université Félix Houphouet Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
  • Étienne Pardoux Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, I2M, Marseille, France

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33044/revuma.4032

Abstract

This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so that the effective reproduction number is less than one. We do that for a SIR/SEIR model, where infectious individuals have an infection-age-dependent infectivity, as in the model introduced in Kermack and McKendrick's seminal 1927 paper. Our main conclusion is that simplifying the model as an ODE SIR model, as it is largely done in the epidemics literature, introduces a bias toward shorter extinction time.

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Published

2024-09-12

Issue

Vol. 67 No. 2 (2024)

Section

Article

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Copyright (c) 2024 Anicet Mougabe-Peurkor, Ibrahima Dramé, Modeste N'zi, Étienne Pardoux

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