Assimetrias e causalidades entre receitas de despesas públicas no Brasil

Benito Adelmo Salomão Neto; Cleomar  Gomes da Silva

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2023.2758

Authors

Benito Adelmo Salomão Neto Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7462-9763
Cleomar Gomes da Silva Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1543-9097

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2023.2758

Keywords:

Fiscal policy, NARDL, Dynamic multipliers, Regressive model.

Abstract

This article analyzes the Brazilian fiscal policy between January/2003 and December/2018, seeking to fit it into one of four classic characteristics: tax-spend, spend-tax, fiscal synchronization and fiscal neutrality, in addition to analyzing the country´s revenues and expenditures, and asymmetries and causalities. By using Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models with cointegration, the results show cointegration between total revenues and expenses, also disaggregated into mandatory and discretionary expenses. Also, fiscal policy in Brazil is a “spend-tax” type, for the relationship between revenues, total and mandatory expenditures, and “tax-spend” for the relationship revenues-discretionary expenditures. Asymmetry is found in the relationship between total and mandatory expenditures, which grow together with GDP and revenue growth, but do not fall in recessions. Decreases in revenues lead to reductions in discretionary expenditures, which works by adjusting the short run budget, making long-run fiscal balance viable.

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