Do institutions matter for agri-food imports and exports between China and Africa? A gravity model analysis

Nazir Muhammad Abdullahi; Saleh Shahriar; Sokvibol Kea; Adamu Ali Ibrahim; Aminu Muhammad  Abdullahi

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2025.4316

Autores

Nazir Muhammad Abdullahi Northwest A&F University, China; Kano State Polytechnic, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2149-0638
Saleh Shahriar North South University, Bangladesh https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5199-3258
Sokvibol Kea Kirirom Institute of Technology (KIT), Cambodia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0950-3336
Adamu Ali Ibrahim Bayero University, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7883-4139
Aminu Muhammad Abdullahi Kano State Polytechnic, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9846-1726

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2025.4316

Palavras-chave:

Comércio Africa-China, Mercado alimentício, Modelo gravitacional, Instituições

Resumo

O presente documento tem por objetivo estudar o papel da qualidade institucional no comércio agroalimentar (importação e exportação) entre a China e 48 países africanos durante o período 2001-2021. Foi utilizado o modelo gravitacional do comércio, estimando os estimadores Generalised Least Square (GLS) e Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML), que incluem fluxos comerciais nulos para dados de painel. Os principais resultados mostram que a voz e a responsabilização, o controlo da corrupção e o Estado de direito aumentam os fluxos comerciais agro-alimentares. A instabilidade política incentiva as exportações agro-alimentares para a China. Além disso, a dimensão económica da China, o custo do comércio (distância) e a população dos países africanos também incentivam o comércio agroalimentar entre a China e as economias africanas. Por outro lado, o acesso ao mar, a política cambial e a dimensão económica dos países africanos reduzem as importações agro-alimentares da China provenientes de África. Mostrámos o mecanismo através do qual cada variável institucional afecta os fluxos comerciais agro-alimentares da China para os países africanos.

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