Technological diffusion dynamics in developed and developing economies: an analysis for the information and communication technologies (ICT)

Adriano Cristian Gewehr; Janaina Ruffoni Trez; Alexsandro Marian Carvalho

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2019.1368

Authors

Adriano Cristian Gewehr UNISINOS
Janaina Ruffoni Trez UNISINOS
Alexsandro Marian Carvalho UNISINOS

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2019.1368

Keywords:

Diffusion, Innovation, Developed countries, Developing countries

Abstract

How are the diffusion process dynamics of ICT in developed and developing countries? The research was based on Bass model (1969) and used the empirical consumption data for the G7 and BRICS. The main results were: i) the model adjusted the diffusion curves with low error rates [.2%-5.1%]; ii) no direct relationship between the speed and development level; iii) developed countries have reached the inflection point in the diffusion process before developing countries; iv) in some countries only approximately half of the population will get access to internet. In developing countries, the process to capture new adopters is slow, and while developed countries are reaching saturation, in most of the developing countries these technologies still have potential for diffusion.

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