Technological diffusion dynamics in developed and developing economies: an analysis for the information and communication technologies (ICT)

Adriano Cristian Gewehr; Janaina Ruffoni Trez; Alexsandro Marian Carvalho

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2019.1368

Autores

Adriano Cristian Gewehr UNISINOS
Janaina Ruffoni Trez UNISINOS
Alexsandro Marian Carvalho UNISINOS

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2019.1368

Palavras-chave:

Diffusion, Innovation, Developed countries, Developing countries

Resumo

How are the diffusion process dynamics of ICT in developed and developing countries? The research was based on Bass model (1969) and used the empirical consumption data for the G7 and BRICS. The main results were: i) the model adjusted the diffusion curves with low error rates [.2%-5.1%]; ii) no direct relationship between the speed and development level; iii) developed countries have reached the inflection point in the diffusion process before developing countries; iv) in some countries only approximately half of the population will get access to internet. In developing countries, the process to capture new adopters is slow, and while developed countries are reaching saturation, in most of the developing countries these technologies still have potential for diffusion.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Referências

Abu, S. T. (2010). Technological innovations and 3G mobile phone diffusion: Lessons learned from Japan. Telematics and Informatics, 27(4), 418-432. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2010.03.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2010.03.001

Ahn, H., & Lee, M. H. (1999). An econometric analysis of the demand for access to mobile telephone networks. Information Economics and Policy, 11(3), 297-305. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6245(99)00016-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6245(99)00016-5

Aker, J. C., & Mbiti, I. M. (2010). Mobile phones and economic development in Africa. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(3), 207-32. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.3.207 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.3.207

Andrés, L., Cuberes, D., Diouf, M., & Serebrisky, T. (2010). The diffusion of the Internet: A cross-country analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 34(5-6), 323-340. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2010.01.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2010.01.003

Bagchi, K., Udo, G., & Kirs, P. (2007). Global diffusion of the internet XII: the internet growth in Africa: some empirical results. Communications of the Association for Information Systems, 19(1), 16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17705/1CAIS.01916

Bagchi, K., Kirs, P., & López, F. (2008). The impact of price decreases on telephone and cell phone diffusion. Information & Management, 45(3), 183-193. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.im.2007.12.005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.im.2007.12.005

Bass, F. M. (1969). A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management science, 15(5), 215-227. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0264 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215

Bass, F. M., Krishnan, T. V., & Jain, D. C. (1994). Why the Bass model fits without decision variables. Marketing science, 13(3), 203-223. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.13.3.203

Bauer, J. M., Berne, M., & Maitland, C. F. (2002). Internet access in the European Union and in the United States. Telematics and Informatics, 19(2), 117-137. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0736-5853(01)00009-0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0736-5853(01)00009-0

Beilock, R., & Dimitrova, D. V. (2003). An exploratory model of inter-country Internet diffusion.

Telecommunications Policy, 27(3-4), 237-252. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0308-5961(02)00100-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-5961(02)00100-3

Birba, O., & Diagne, A. (2012). Determinants of adoption of Internet in Africa: Case of 17 sub-Saharan countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(4), 463-472. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016j.strueco.2012.06.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2012.06.003

Bocquet, R., Brossard, O., & Sabatier, M. (2007). Complementarities in organizational design and the diffusion of information technologies: An empirical analysis. Research Policy, 36(3), 367-386. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2006.12.005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2006.12.005

Bertschek, I., Polder, M., & Schulte, P. (2019). ICT and resilience in times of crisis: evidence from cross-country micro moments data. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1-16. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2018.1557417 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2018.1557417

Cette, G., & Lopez, J. (2012). ICT demand behaviour: an international comparison. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 21(4), 397-410. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2011.595921 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2011.595921

Chinn, M. D., & Fairlie, R. W. (2007). The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration. Oxford Economic Papers, 59(1), 16-44. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpl024

Corrocher, N. (2003). The diffusion of Internet telephony among consumers and firms: current issues and future prospects. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(6), 525-544. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00322-0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00322-0

Crenshaw, E. M., & Robison, K. K. (2006). Globalization and the digital divide: The roles of structural conduciveness and global connection in Internet diffusion. Social Science Quarterly, 87(1), 190-207. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0038-4941.2006.00376.x

Day, G. S., Schoemaker, P. J., & Gunther, R. E. (Eds.). (2004). Wharton on managing emerging technologies. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Das, A., Chowdhury, M., & Seaborn, S. (2018). ICT diffusion, financial development and economic growth: new evidence from low and lower middle-income countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 9(3), 928-947. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-016-0383-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-016-0383-7

Delina, R., & Tkáč, M. (2015). Role of e-business in the perception of ICT impact on revenue growth. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 16(6), 1140-1153. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2013.797012 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2013.797012

Deroıan, F. (2002). Formation of social networks and diffusion of innovations. Research policy, 31(5), 835-846. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(01)00147-0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(01)00147-0

Dee Dickerson, M., & Gentry, J. W. (1983). Characteristics of adopters and non-adopters of home computers. JournalofConsumerresearch, 10(2), 225-235. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/208961

Falk, M., & Hagsten, E. (2015). E-commerce trends and impacts across Europe. International Journal of Production Economics, 170, 357-369. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.10.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.10.003

Figueiredo, J. C. B. (2009). Estudo da difusão da tecnologia móvel celular no Brasil: uma abordagem com o uso de Dinâmica de Sistemas. Production, 19(1), 230-245. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1590S0103-65132009000100015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-65132009000100015

Franco, N. B. (2006). Cálculo numérico. Pearson.

Geroski, P. A. (2000). Models of technology diffusion. Research policy, 29(4-5), 603-625. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(99)00092-X

Godinho, M. M. (2003). Inovação: conceitos e perspectivas fundamentais. Para uma Política de Inovação em Portugal, Biblioteca de Economia & Empresa, Dom Quixote, Lisboa, 29-51.

Grajek, M. (2003). Estimating network effects and compatibility in mobile telecommunications. WZB Discussion Paper No. SP II 2003 – 26. Recuperado de https://bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/2003/ii03-26.pdf

Grajek, M., & Kretschmer, T. (2009). Usage and diffusion of cellular telephony, 1998–2004. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 27(2), 238-249. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2008.08.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2008.08.003

Grazzi, M., & Jung, J. (2019). What Are the Drivers of ICT Diffusion? Evidence from Latin American Firms. Information Technologies & International Development, 15, 34-42.

Greenstein, S., & Prince, J. (2006). The Diffusion of the Internet and the Geography of the Digital Divide in the United States. NBER Discussion Papers No 12182. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w12182

Gruber, H. (2001). Competition and innovation: The diffusion of mobile telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe. Information Economics and policy, 13(1), 19-34. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6245(00)00028-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6245(00)00028-7

Gruber, H., & Koutroumpis, P. (2010). Mobile communications: Diffusion facts and prospects. Communications and Strategies, 77(1), 133-145.

Gruber, H., & Koutroumpis, P. (2011). Mobile telecommunications and the impact on economic development. Economic Policy, 26(67), 387-426. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00266.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2011.00266.x

Gruber, H., & Verboven, F. (2001). The evolution of markets under entry and standards regulation—the case of global mobile telecommunications. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 19(7), 1189-1212. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-7187(01)00069-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-7187(01)00069-8

Gruber, H., & Verboven, F. (2001b). The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union. European Economic Review, 45(3), 577-588. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(00)00068-4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(00)00068-4

Grzybowski, L., & Karamti, C. (2010). Competition in mobile telephony in France and Germany. The Manchester School, 78(6), 702-724. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02155.x

Gupta, R., & Jain, K. (2012). Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(4), 709-715. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.003

Hargittai, E. (1999). Weaving the Western Web: Explaining differences in Internet connectivity among OECD countries. Telecommunications policy, 23(10-11), 701-718. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0308-5961(99)00050-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-5961(99)00050-6

Honoré, B. (2019). Diffusion of mobile telephony: Analysis of determinants in Cameroon. Telecommunications Policy, 43(3), 287-298. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2018.08.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2018.08.002

ITU (2015). International Telecommunication Union Indicators Database. Recuperado de http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/stat/default.aspx

Jorgenson, D. W., & Vu, K. M. (2016). The ICT revolution, world economic growth, and policy issues.

Telecommunications Policy, 40(5), 383-397. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2016.01.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2016.01.002

Kiiski, S., & Pohjola, M. (2002). Cross-country diffusion of the Internet. Information Economics and Policy, 14(2), 297-310. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6245(01)00071-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6245(01)00071-3

Koski, H., & Kretschmer, T. (2005). Entry, standards and competition: Firm strategies and the diffusion of mobile telephony. Review of Industrial Organization, 26(1), 89-113. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-004-4085-0

Kalba, K. (2008). The adoption of mobile phones in emerging markets: Global diffusion and the rural challenge. International journal of Communication, 2, 631-661.

Krishnan, T. V., & Jain, D. C. (2006). Optimal dynamic advertising policy for new products. Management Science, 52(12), 1957-1969. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0585

Krishnan, T. V., Bass, F. M., & Jain, D. C. (1999). Optimal pricing strategy for new products. Management Science, 45(12), 1650-1663. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.12.1650

Lera-López, F., Billon, M., & Gil, M. (2011). Determinants of Internet use in Spain. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 20(2), 127-152. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1080/10438590903378017 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438590903378017

Lee, S., & Lee, S. (2014). Early diffusion of smartphones in OECD and BRICS countries: An examination of the effects of platform competition and indirect network effects. Telematics and Informatics, 31(3), 345-355. Recuperado de http://dx.doi /10.1016/j.tele.2013.12.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2013.12.002

Lehmann, D. R., & Esteban-Bravo, M. (2006). When giving some away makes sense to jump-start the diffusion process. Marketing Letters, 17(4), 243-254. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11002-006-7942-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11002-006-7942-9

Liikanen, J., Stoneman, P., & Toivanen, O. (2004). Intergenerational effects in the diffusion of new technology: the case of mobile phones. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 22(8-9), 1137-1154. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2004.05.006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2004.05.006

Li, R., & Shiu, A. (2012). Internet diffusion in China: A dynamic panel data analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 36(10-11), 872-887. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2012.06.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2012.06.004

Liu, Y., & Li, H. (2010). Mobile internet diffusion in China: an empirical study. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 110(3), 309-324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/02635571011030006

Mangano, S. (2010). Mathematica Cookbook. O'Reilly Media, Inc..

Miller, B., & Atkinson, R. D. (2014). Raising European productivity growth through ICT. ITIF, June. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3079844

Niebel, T. (2018). ICT and economic growth–Comparing developing, emerging and developed countries. World Development, 104, 197-211. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.024 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.024

Paunov, C., & Rollo, V. (2016). Has the internet fostered inclusive innovation in the developing world?. World Development, 78, 587-609. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.029 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.029

Phuc, P. N. K., Vincent, F. Y., & Chou, S. Y. (2013). Manufacturing production plan optimization in three-stage supply chains under Bass model market effects. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 65(3), 509-516. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2013.02.019 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2013.02.019

Porath, D., & Schaefer, C. (2014). Applying the Bass model to pharmaceuticals in emerging markets. International Journal of Market Research, 56(4), 513-530. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.2501/IJMR-2014-033 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2501/IJMR-2014-033

Prince, J. T., & Simon, D. H. (2009). Has the Internet accelerated the diffusion of new products?. Research Policy, 38(8), 1269-1277. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2009.06.008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2009.06.008

Rogers, E. M. (1962). Diffusion of innovations. New York: Free Press.

Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of innovations. New York: Free Press.

Roller, L. H., & Waverman, L. (2001). Telecommunications infrastructure and economic development: A simultaneous approach. American economic review, 91(4), 909-923. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.909

Santoleri, P. (2015). Diversity and intensity of information and communication technologies use and product innovation: evidence from Chilean micro-data. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 24(6), 550-568. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2014.946313 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2014.946313

Schumpeter, J. A. (1982). Teoria do desenvolvimento econômico. São Paulo: Abril Cultural.

Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalismo, socialismo e democracia. Rio de Janeiro: Fundo de cultura.

Singh, S. K. (2008). The diffusion of mobile phones in India. TelecommunicationsPolicy, 32(9-10), 642-651. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org10.1016/j.telpol.2008.07.005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2008.07.005

Stenberg, P. L. (2018). The purchase of Internet subscriptions in Native American households. Telecommunications Policy, 42(1), 51-60. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2017.08.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2017.08.003

Tan, Z., & Clark, T. H. (2000). Internet diffusion in the USA and China. info, 2(6), 595-604. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636690010801753

Turk, T., & Trkman, P. (2012). Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(1), 85-96. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.010

Van der Boor, P., Oliveira, P., & Veloso, F. (2014). Users as innovators in developing countries: The global sources of innovation and diffusion in mobile banking services. Research Policy, 43(9), 1594-1607. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2014.05.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2014.05.003

Vu, K. M. (2011). ICT as a source of economic growth in the information age: Empirical evidence from the 1996–2005 period. Telecommunications Policy, 35(4), 357-372. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2011.02.008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2011.02.008

Waverman, L., Meschi, M., & Fuss, M. (2005). The impact of telecoms on economic growth in developing countries. The Vodafone policy paper series, 2(03), 10-24.

Wold Bank. Global economic prospects 2008: technology diffusion in the developing world. Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries (GEP). Washington, DC: World Bank Group. Recuperado de http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/01/9013126/global-economic-prospects-technology-diffusion-developing-world-2008

World Bank. GDP PER CAPITA. Recuperado de http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD.

Wunnava, P. V., & Leiter, D. B. (2009). Determinants of intercountry Internet diffusion rates. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 68(2), 413-426. Recuperado de http://dx.doi.org10.1111/j.1536-7150.2009.00634.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1536-7150.2009.00634.x

Yamakawa, P., Rees, G. H., Salas, J. M., & Alva, N. (2013). The diffusion of mobile telephones: An empirical analysis for Peru. Telecommunications Policy, 37(6-7), 594-606. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2012.12.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2012.12.010

Yousefi, A. (2011). The impact of information and communication technology on economic growth: evidence from developed and developing countries. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 20(6), 581-596. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2010.544470 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2010.544470

Zaber, M., & Sirbu, M. (2012). Impact of spectrum management policy on the penetration of 3G technology. Telecommunications Policy, 36(9), 762-782. Recuperado de http://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2012.06.012 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2012.06.012