Regra do teto dos gastos públicos (PEC 55/241) e sustentabilidade da dívida pública no Brasil: Análise de cenários a partir de um modelo DSGE

Áydano Ribeiro Leite; Cássio da Bessaria Nobrega; André Luis Mota dos Santos; Fernando  Fernandes Neto

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2022.2767

Authors

Áydano Ribeiro Leite Universidade Regional do Cariri , Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3203-5657
Cássio da Bessaria Nobrega Federal University of Paraíba , Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3704-0343
André Luis Mota dos Santos Federal University of Bahia , Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6494-0104
Fernando Fernandes Neto University of São Paulo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2022.2767

Keywords:

Debt trajectory, Fiscal Rule, DSGE, Public debt

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyze, under different scenarios, the trajectory of the public debt with a government current expenditure ceiling rule. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model was used considering two different scenarios, assuming compliance or not with the new fiscal rule by the government. In the context in which the government did not comply with the ceiling, the primary result dropped significantly and the public debt grew persistently, even in the face of positive shocks to productivity and taxes. In the scenario where the government complied with the ceiling rule, fiscal responsibility was able to correct the imbalance in its accounts, both in the face of the productivity shock and also in the face of fiscal shocks on taxes.

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